2026 Talent Acquisition Predictions

2026 finds talent acquisition departments in the middle of wrenching change. Here are four predictions that will shape what the next year looks like for recruiters, TA leaders, and the technology companies that serve them.

The Recruiting AI Arms Race Will Accelerate

Application volume is going to continue to rise.

Agentic AI is making it easier than ever for candidates to apply at scale. Bots can now identify open positions, tailor resumes, and submit applications across dozens or hundreds of roles automatically.

This carries with it echoes of the rise of the online job boards in the early 2000s. They removed much of the friction of paper-based application processes, and TA departments needed new tools to deal with the increased volume - modern Applicant Tracking Systems.

A similar dynamic is playing out now. As the number of applications rises, and as candidate AI agents tailor them in ways that require more human review, TA departments will be forced to deploy their own AI-based solutions just to keep the system from collapsing under the increased volume.

I’ve heard wishful thinking that when the “bubble bursts”, we will return to “normal”. That’s not going to happen - the genie is out of the bottle.

Candidate Verification Will Become a Core Hiring Layer

Candidate fraud will continue to accelerate, and verification will no longer be optional at the earliest stages of the funnel.

In 2025, verification and trust became one of the fastest growing segments in recruiting technology. Am I talking to a real person? Are their credentials real? Is this the same person who applied, interviewed, and accepted the offer?

In 2026, verification will become a necessary layer across every major recruiting suite. But it is a feature, not a stand-alone business. The startups that prove their verification technology works will get acquired.

LinkedIn Will Have to Pivot Away From Engagement at Any Cost

LinkedIn’s transformation over the past decade has been remarkable. It went from a collection of static profiles to the world’s most important professional network. Conversations happen there. Communities form there. Business gets done there.

Financially, it is working. Revenue keeps climbing. It remains the only major global business social platform, and it is more trusted than Facebook, X, or TikTok.

But LinkedIn has a growing problem in the form of AI-generated posts, automated sales pitches, and fake thought leadership. The noise-to-signal ratio on LinkedIn is becoming unbearable. Real insights are being buried under waves of low-quality content optimized to trigger the algorithm, and users are losing faith in LinkedIn as a place to learn and have real conversations.

In 2026, LinkedIn will be forced to choose. Either it continues to maximize engagement, or it re-centers the platform around trust, relevance, and real expertise. It cannot do both forever.

Recruiting Teams Will Shrink

The labor market is starting the year “frozen”, and companies remain cautious about hiring. This means there is less hiring activity flowing through TA, and our teams will inevitably shrink. I’ve argued that much of this is still the correction from COVID-era overhiring, and I still believe that this is true.

TA teams will also continue to restructure around agentic AI, as it allows them to offload broad categories of repetitive work. Our teams will be smaller, but they will also be more productive and more strategically focused.

I will dig into what that shift looks like in practice in the coming weeks.

— David

P.S. If you found this newsletter valuable, chances are your colleagues will too. Feel free to forward it along—and if it landed in your inbox by way of a friend, you can subscribe here to get the next one directly.

More Recruiting Insights

An A.I. Start-Up Says It Wants to Empower Workers, Not Replace Them. Humans&, a new startup from alumni of Anthropic, xAI, and Google that aims to build “human-centric” AI to coordinate people and AI rather than replace workers. The company has reportedly raised about $480 million at a $4.48 billion valuation. The philosophy is a welcome change and will resonate with many, but the valuation feels very bubble-y. (NYT)

The Judge in the Mobley Case Raises Questions About the Adequacy of Plaintiff’s Counsel. In last week’s ERE Weekly, I noted that there was a new website for the Mobley case. Gerry Crispin emailed me pointing out the shortcomings of the site, which does not mention the companies who use the Workday product (Most candidates have no idea what product is under the hood, only the company that they are applying to work at).

In this most recent court filing, Judge Rita Lin wrote that Workday’s evidence suggests plaintiffs’ counsel have been “asleep at the wheel” on discovery, citing no third-party subpoenas after getting a customer list, months-long delays reviewing produced documents, failure to file requested supplemental briefing, and no motions to compel, which raises concerns about their adequacy to represent the class. (Justia)

Payscale report says that Employers Plan to Increase Salaries by 3.5% in 2026. This matches 2025 salary increases of 3.5%, and is only slightly more than the current 2.7% rate of inflation. Another nugget from the report: 48% of organization plan to give pay raises based on performance, while 16% plan to implement across-the-board raises. (Payscale)

Conferences

ERE Recruiting Innovation Summit

Atlanta, GA
May 5-6, 2025

The ERE Recruiting Innovation Summit is a practitioner-led event built for talent acquisition leaders who want real answers, not hype. Join us for practical sessions, meaningful peer connection, and live “Ask Me Anything” office hours with our speakers.

If you care about where recruiting is headed and want ideas you can put to work immediately, you belong in this room.

(ERE Recruiting Innovation Summit)