The conversations that I usually have with people in talent acquisition about careers and the future of work have centered on the impact of AI and robotics. They go something like this: “If AI capabilities continue to grow at the current pace, they will inevitably be able to do the work currently done by employees. What kind of work will humans do in the future?”

But what if the next big change that will impact the workforce is less about AI and more about demographics?

Yesterday, John Sumser published an excellent primer on the demographic and economic forces pushing the U.S. toward a smaller labor pool.

The current challenges in the employment marketplace can make labor shortages seem like a ridiculous notion. Employers today are cutting recruiting teams, delaying requisitions, and receiving hundreds of applications for individual jobs. But many of those conditions are cyclical. The demographic forces reshaping the U.S. workforce are structural, and they are moving in the opposite direction.

Simply put, the United States is producing fewer future workers. The U.S. fertility rate fell to approximately 1.6 children per woman in 2024, a record low. At the same time, millions of baby boomers are reaching retirement age, leaving fewer workers behind to replace them.

Demographer Steven Ruggles projects that the U.S.-born labor force will shrink by 2.7 million people in the decade following 2030. From that point forward, labor force growth will depend on immigration, and a recent analysis found that net immigration in 2025 was actually negative for the first time in a half century. 

One of the basic assumptions underlying the entire hiring ecosystem in the U.S. is an ever-growing workforce. In the last half century, we’ve seen baby boomers enter the workforce in enormous numbers, women’s participation increase dramatically, and immigration add millions of workers.

If the forecasts are correct, that’s all about to change.

Japan offers a possible window into what a transition to a shrinking population and workforce could look like.

Between 1995 and 2024, Japan’s population aged 15 to 64 shrank by approximately 15%, from 86.9 million to 73.7 million. Over the same period, total employment increased by 5%, as higher participation among women and older people more than offset the demographic decline.

The Japanese experience suggests that the early phase of demographic decline is not necessarily characterized by mass unemployment. It is more likely to be characterized by an intense effort to employ a greater percentage of the available population, followed by increasingly persistent labor shortages as that reserve is exhausted.

Talent acquisition cannot manufacture additional people. It can, however, help employers stop unnecessarily excluding the people who are already available. That means reevaluating degree requirements, experience thresholds, location restrictions, scheduling practices, and lengthy hiring processes.

Employers will also have to become more serious about talent pools they have traditionally described as “alternative,” such as older workers, people with disabilities, caregivers returning to employment, veterans, people with criminal records, immigrants, workers without college degrees, and candidates seeking reduced or flexible schedules.

That brings us back to AI. In a few years, we may not view AI as a simple substitute for labor, but as an essential tool for adapting to a world where our population is no longer growing.

— David

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Poll Results

Last week we asked whether telling candidates where they stand should be a baseline requirement in recruiting. 142 of you answered.

The most popular answer was the most categorical: 31% said yes, every applicant deserves closure. Another 17% said yes with practical exceptions, and 16% would require it only for interviewed candidates. In total, 64% support making closure a standard in some form.

One split worth noting: government and private-sector respondents answered very differently. Among government HR professionals, a majority — 55% — were skeptical, with "no, employers need flexibility" and "good idea, but impractical" as the top two answers. Private-sector respondents went the other way: 77% backed some form of closure standard, and 43% wanted it for every applicant, no exceptions. The hesitation, it seems, isn't evenly distributed — it's concentrated where hiring rules are already the heaviest.

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More Recruiting Insights

The Population Bust Is Coming Sooner Than Anyone Is Prepared For. Lyman Stone argues that official U.S. population forecasts remain too optimistic because they assume immigration will stay high and fertility will stabilize or rebound, despite evidence pointing in the opposite direction. (NYT)

China’s Graduate Glut. A record 12.7 million Chinese college graduates are entering a weak job market shaped by slower economic growth, a mismatch between degrees and available work, and automation of many entry-level tasks. Add this to the growing pile of evidence of the impact of AI on early-career hiring. (The Guardian)

Where Salary Ranges Actually Help Job Seekers. An analysis of nearly 1.38 million active U.S. job listings found that while 34.3% included a parseable salary range, less than a quarter offered a range narrow enough to help candidates make informed decisions. These salary ranges need to be about more than just compliance if they are going to be useful. (Corvi Careers)

U.S. Workers Are More Productive Than Ever. A.I. Isn’t the Key. U.S. labor productivity is growing at its fastest pace in at least two decades, driven by tight labor markets, digitization, remote work, and other changes, with AI still playing a secondary role. Companies are producing more while limiting hiring, a shift that could keep recruiting demand subdued even as retirements and lower immigration tighten the labor supply. (NYT)

Unretirement is quietly becoming the new normal in the U.S. This is a startling number - According to the AARP, seven percent of retirees have returned to work in the past six months, with nearly half citing the need to cover everyday expenses. (Inc.)

Recruiting’s AI ROI Problem Is Not an AI Problem. I had a great conversation with Master Burnett last week after he pushed back on the idea that AI cannot recognize nontraditional career paths as well as experienced recruiters. He has a stake in the debate because HireBrain sells this kind of contextual skills analysis, but his broader point is worth considering. (Master Burnett)

Webinars

Quality of Hire and Employer Branding in the Age of Social Media and AI

July 15, 2026 | 2:00 PM EDT | 1 Hour

Discover how modern behavioral signals can help you move beyond the resume to protect your people, strengthen your employer brand, and build a safer, more resilient workforce. In this session, FAMA CEO Ben Mones will walk through how younger generations and the age of AI are changing the hiring landscape, and explore how we can adapt to protect our teams, brand reputations, and quality of hire. (ERE)

Hiring Changed. Recruiting Didn’t. How TA Teams Can Level Up Now

August 4, 2026 | 2:00 PM EDT | 1 Hour

Hiring has changed dramatically since 2020. Most recruiting models haven’t. TA teams are being asked to act as strategic advisors, market analysts, and operational problem-solvers – often with fewer resources and higher expectations than ever before.

Mike Rasmussen will an honest look at why more tools, more activity, and more reporting haven’t automatically produced better hiring outcomes. He’ll show what it looks like when TA teams stop managing requisitions and start shaping decisions. (ERE)

Conferences

ERE Recruiting Innovation Summit

San Diego, CA
November 10-11, 2026

Talent acquisition is moving fast. The best leaders are not just chasing trends. They are comparing notes, testing new approaches, and learning from practitioners who are already deep in the work.

This November, the ERE Recruiting Innovation Summit comes to San Diego for two days of practical insight, honest discussion, and peer-to-peer learning. You’ll hear real examples from recruiting teams tackling today’s biggest questions, from AI and automation to candidate trust, quality of hire, hiring manager alignment, employer brand, and recruiting at scale.

Experience the future of talent acquisition next month. We hope to see you there! (ERE Recruiting Innovation Summit)