AI hype has grown to the point where it’s inescapable, in headlines, at work, and even around the dinner table. It’s now discussed at social gatherings — whether it’s your recent graduate niece bemoaning her job prospects or your uncle telling you to buy Nvidia because it’s about to go through the roof (again).

The last time it felt this way was during the dotcom boom.

Like the internet in the late ‘90s, AI is a world-changing technology, but there are signs that are eerily reminiscent of the crash that followed in 2000. The pace of enterprise AI adoption has been slower than expected, and for every case study touting massive efficiencies, there are many more that quietly fail. Like AOL and Cisco in the dotcom boom, some of the companies at the center of AI have begun investing in their customers, requiring those customers to spend those dollars on their products, a practice called “round-tripping,” which temporarily inflates revenue and market demand. 

Before AI transforms recruiting — and it will — there’s going to be a shakeout. We’re in the middle of Gartner’s Peak of Inflated Expectations, and the Trough of Disillusionment is coming.

I wrote last month about the sameness of many of the HR Tech pitches this year — too many companies are chasing the same ideas with too little differentiation. The companies that are able to tell clear stories about how they are different are the ones with deep data advantages. The ERPs — Oracle, SAP, Workday — have it because they hold companies’ core employee data. LinkedIn, with over 90 million verified professional profiles, has it too.

I’ve seen multiple demos of AI recruiting tools that parse job descriptions or use conversational prompts to identify the needed skillsets. Some of them do a technically impressive job. But LinkedIn’s new Hiring Assistant can do that and instantly match the req against those 90 million verified profiles.

As Jacob Sten Madsen pointed out last week, many of the current AI tools have LinkedIn integrations. And that’s true, for now. But there are two problems with this.

The first is that those products require paying for both their tool and LinkedIn — and if LinkedIn’s own product does 90% of the job, guess which one gets cut?

Second, remember all of the sourcing tools whose business model was more effectively finding information from LinkedIn? When LinkedIn tightened the screws, all of them first tried diversifying to include other data sources, and today those that are still around have pivoted to other models. This is not a what-if scenario, it’s already happening. Just a few months ago, users of the Juicebox Chrome extension woke up to find that it no longer worked with LinkedIn.

For the builders of recruiting tech, it’s not going to be enough to have cool AI-enabled technology. There are other nimble competitors with similar technology and stories, and the big players will catch up fast.

Find your moat - something that will differentiate you from the dozen other companies chasing the same vision.

Next week, I’m heading back to San Diego for the ERE Recruiting Innovation Summit. The ERE team has been working hard for months to bring together the most forward-thinking TA leaders to share their experiences. So I’ll be taking a week off from the newsletter and be back in a couple of weeks with some highlights from the Summit.

If you couldn’t make San Diego work this year, you still have the chance to join us virtually. Every session will stream live, with chat and full access to the recordings afterward. We’ve put a lot of effort into making it a great experience — it’s the next best thing to being there.

— David

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Conferences

ERE Recruiting Innovation Summit

San Diego, CA

November 4-5, 2025

The ERE Recruiting Innovation Summit is the premier independent, practitioner-led event for TA professionals.

Join virtually to explore actionable insights, real case studies, and proven best practices from recruiting leaders tackling today’s biggest challenges.

(ERE Recruiting Innovation Summit)

Webinars

Making Sense of Talent Metrics for Smarter Hiring

November 12, 2025 | 2:00 PM EDT | 1 Hour

If you’re feeling overwhelmed by the “metrics maze” of modern recruiting, you’re not alone. The pressure is coming from every direction: burned-out teams, pipelines filled with AI-generated resumes, and constant demands to prove the ROI of your tech stack. Mastering recruiting analytics today means moving beyond surface-level activity to uncover meaningful insights. This session will help you refocus on the data that actually moves the needle and build a more efficient, human-centered hiring process. (ERE)

The State of Candidate Experience 2025

November 19, 2025 | 2:00 PM EDT | 1 Hour

The latest CandE Benchmark Research shows that it’s one of the worst candidate markets in recent memory. Candidate resentment – the percentage of candidates who told us they wouldn’t engage a business and brand again due to a poor candidate experience – has never been higher globally. However, there are employers that delivered and sustained a quality candidate experience this year, from pre-application to onboarding. In this Webinar, Kevin will share the latest insights from the 2025 CandE data. (ERE)

AI in Hiring: Exposing the Risks, Defining the Rules, and Doing It Right

November 20, 2025 | 2:00 PM EDT | 1 Hour

AI is reshaping the way organizations attract, assess, and hire talent — but not without controversy. While some fear it opens the door to bias, cheating, or opaque decision-making, the best teams are proving that when used ethically, AI can enhance fairness, speed, and candidate experience. You’ll hear truth-telling about the real risks of AI misuse — from unchecked automation to data privacy concerns — alongside expert guidance on how to embrace AI responsibly. (ERE)